Tuesday 05/08/12 Report and Prediction

Report:  winds from the S-SSE and building windswell.

Prediction:  Yesterday’s prediction stands, more or less, but with the worrisome caveat that Wednesday’s winds now look like they will have a bit more SSW in them than originally hoped and might have a bit more velocity than what is desired to result in a bona fide cleanup.  Keep your fingers crossed that they favor a SW tilt as the more it comes around the cleaner conditions will be, particularly at more East-facing and protected breaks.  As always, I highly recommend you monitor sources of local weather information for the most up-to-date wind predictions.

Extended Forecast:  We could be looking at a smalll mid-period East background swell mixed with SSE windswell leftovers under stiff NNW-NW winds for Thursday.  I will update as/if details that might affect the outlook emerge.

Monday 05/07/12 Report and Prediction

Report:  Sorry for the lack of a timely report today, I was a bit under the weather this past weekend and overwhelmed at work today.  I do hear there was a decent little mid-period East background swell in the water under light onshore/sideshore winds, but can’t testify to that personally.

Prediction:  It looks like we are in for a bit of a S-SSE blow overnight through Tuesday, which should generate some hard-angled South windswell.

Extended Forecast:  As the low moves off, winds should come around to offshore winds in in its wake on Wednesday.  Right now it appears that we are looking at moderate SW-SSW winds, which could result in a bit of a slow-to-cleanup scenario at East-facing beaches in CNJ, and possibly only a semi-cleanup at the south-facing coastline of SNJ, but at least it does not currently look like we will be getting those ripping SW-SSW winds that plagued all but the most sheltered breaks during our last significant swell.  As always, I highly recommend you monitor sources of local weather information for the most up-to-date wind predictions.  Looking even further ahead, we should be looking at a small potential mid-period East background swell/leftovers spun off the backside of the low out to sea under and NNW-NW winds; details TBD in the next update.

Friday 05/04/12 Report and Prediction

Report:  The mid-period E swell has definitely hopped up overnight, even a bit more than anticipated.  It is difficult to get a good read on it through the early-morning fog, but I’m seeing waist-stomach high average waves with standout sets in the chest-to-possibly shoulder range, so get on it if you can.  Winds are pretty light/dead right now, and predicted to go SW to even WSW later this morning.  Of course, with the day heating up we could see a warm-weather-induced windshift to the SSE later today, so bear that in mind when making your plans.
Prediction:  Basically stands as-is from yesterday, so see below.

 

2PM Update/comment: unfortunately the winds never went true SW but rather indecisively wavered between S and SSW, and have now gone S-SSE with the sunny weather and high temperatures.  Keep your fingers crossed that they swing SW-WSW late afternoon/early evening, as they often do as the day begins to cool and the air over the land starts to cool and sink.

 

 

Thursday 05/03/12 Report and Prediction

Report: Small-scale E background waves and light South winds. Not much out there, but see a few scattered surfers making the most of it on bigger boards.

Prediction: Wave heights should pick up a little through the day, particularly early afternoon with the incoming push. S winds might pick up a bit too, but the cloud cover should keep temps down and therefore temper the winds a bit. The small East swell could pick up a little bit tomorrow (not expecting any significant swell, but we should see something equivalent or perhaps a bit larger than today) due to an increase in the period, and right now wind predictions are suggesting they might have a little SW tilt to them, which could yield rideable waves at East-facing and protected breaks.

Extended Forecast: Light to moderate onshore winds and minimal short-period East windswell for the weekend. Potential setup for a South windswell mid-week. Check back late-weekend or early work-week for an update.

05/01/12 Report and Prediction

Report:  Swell angle is good but the wave period leaves a bit to be desired, and the winds are only now beginning to flirt with their turn from the S-SSW to the SW, although it looks like a number of real-time sensors in the northern Monmouth County area are logging legit SW-WSW.  Fingers crossed that we see that happen sooner than later because this swell does not look to have a lot of resolve and may not hold through the evening.  As always, I recommend you keep your eyes on the flags and online resources to make the best go-time call.

Prediction:  Monderate E-ENE winds look to return late tonight through Wednesday, maybe stirring up a less-than-significant windswell/windchop, again with a relatively short period.  Unfortunately, winds look like they are likely to swing sideshore S-SSE instead of getting pulled more offshore in the wake of the front on Thursday.

Extended Forecast: There is potential mid-period E background swell showing up on some models for Friday.  Check back late tomorrow or Thursday for an update.

Monday 04/30/12 Report and Prediction

Report: Flat.

Prediction:  A round of low pressure is slated to move through our area tonight into early tomorrow, bringing rain and onshore/sideshore S-SSE winds.  While a bit of S-SSE windswell may be generated, neither the duration nor the fetch are all that impressive; anticipate short-period windswelly conditions if you are planning to get in as it is one of those setups that could fall anywhere along the meh-to-fun continuum.  Winds are predicted to make a rotation to the SW-WSW by mid-morning, and low tide is right around 10AM, so at least the factors for an incoming-tide-push appear to be aligned to maximize the conditions.  As always, I recommend you keep your eyes on the flags and online resources to make the best go-time call.

Extended Forecast:  Monderate E-ENE winds return late Tuesday through Wednesday, maybe stirring up a less-than-significant windswell/windchop, again with a relatively short period.  Unfortunately, winds look like they are likely to swing sideshore S-SSW instead of getting pulled more offshore in the wake of the front during the latter half of the week.  Check back mid-week for an update.

Thursday 04/26/12 Report and Prediction

Report:  Light onshore winds and leftover E/SE waves.  Nothing great, but I suppose you could get a few decent waves at standout breaks, particularly those with some sort of structure, before the winds come up later this morning or early afternoon.

Prediction:  Well, we did luck out and wind up with returning offshore winds last night, salvaging an evening session, but unfortunately it looks like the front is dragging its heels and will likely not allow the offshore winds to arrive until very late in the day (most likely after dark).  As always, I recommend you keep your eyes on the flags and online resources to make the best go-time call.

Extended Forecast:  The other unfortunate aspect of the current setup is that offshore NW-WNW winds are predicted to ramp up quite a bit around midnight, knocking down whatever windswell is generated by the onshore blow later today.  That all said, I could see a small mid-period SE groundswell spinning off the back of the low as it moves offshore, so it is possible we could see rideable conditions early tomorrow AM under stiff offshore winds.  If so, your best bet would likely be somewhere with a little wind blockage to minimize the blow-back-effect.  Minimal-to-flat conditions are likely for the weekend with high pressure sitting over us and no significant wave-producing systems in proximity at sea.

Wednesday 04/25/12 Report and Prediction

04/25/12 Report:  We are still seeing remnant mid-period ESE swell this morning; after a period of light offshore winds early, winds came around and up out of the S-SSE around 9AM and continue to blow steadily.

Prediction: A weak high-low pressure interaction is predicted for mid-day, possibly bringing scattered showers.  While not much of a swell-driver, it could add a minor cross-swell/chop from the SSE.  The mass of this weather event will likely remain to the north (North Jersey and NY) of the CNJ and SNJ coastal areas, so it could draw the winds SW as it passes by/through late-afternoon/evening.  As always, I recommend you keep your eyes on the flags and online resources to make the best go-time call.

Extended Forecast:  The aforementioned weather is only the precursor/forerunner of a more significant rain event that will pass through our area late tonight through early Thursday, bringing with it more rain and more S-SSE windswell.  The timing of the passage of the front is a little suspect and worrisome, but from the current vantage point it looks like we could be seeing offshore winds by late-afternoon or early evening.  Again, I strongly recommend you keep your eyes on the flags and online resources to make the best go-time call.

I plan to update sometime Thursday AM or early afternoon with an update that will hopefully provide greater resolution.

 

Monday 04/23/12 Report

The prediction from yesterday basically stands as-is, with one (good) caveat: the wind has a little more SW tilt in it than anticipated, making for at least semi-clean (albeit still a bit washy and disorganized) waves this AM at more East-facing and/or sheltered breaks.  Keep your fingers crossed that the winds continue to tilt in this direction as they increase later this AM/afternoon (and don’t revert to the predicted SSW-S angle), which may salvage a late-afternoon/evening session.

As always, I recommend you keep your eyes on the flags and online resources to make the best go-time call.

Otherwise, refer to yesterday’s prediction for the outlook for the first half of the work-week.