A Report/Prediction of a Different Kind

Hi All,

Obviously, a lot has happened since our last report and prediction.  It goes without saying that Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy kicked our ass.  By no doubt you have already seen the destruction relayed by various media and as a first-hand observer of the aftermath it is as bad over there as the media has been showing… probably even worse as photos and videos just don’t seem to capture the experience as well as seeing it with one’s own eyes and speaking with those who lost some/a lot (including us at Eastcoastsurfer) or even it all (as a few of our friends/users have).  It is impossible to put into words what seeing the iconic Casino Pier in shambles was like, nor seeing the remnants of surf shops and local businesses who we supported and, in turn, were friends and supporters of us.  Times are tough and hopefully we will recover, but through conversations with those “in the loop” and those who know about infrastructure assessment, demolition, and repair, I’m sure it won’t be anytime soon and may very well never be as it once was.

The upcoming Nor’easter today into tomorrow will likely add insult to injury in the form of additional water-damage (residents of even salvageable homes in many areas have not been allowed to return home to make repairs to roofs and windows) and could even flood and weaken already-undermined foundations, adding to the frustration and despair of the situation.

I am not sure when we will resume our usual reports and predictions as access to the barrier islands (and therefore the surf they have to offer) is extremely restricted, and to be honest my actual job and the needs of my family must come first for the time being.  We are utilizing our Facebook page to occasionally cherry-pick information from other sites and make quick comments that may be informative and useful to those affected by the event and/or concerned for their fellow humans.  Until then, be well, be safe, and hold in there; I know this is easier said than done but it is the best encouragement I can offer at the moment.

Sincerely,

Professor Sak and Brent

Sunday 10/14/12 Report and Prediction

Report: Small-scale hard-angled S windswell with SSW winds.  Nothing enticing, but I suppose somewhere might be breaking in the loosely-rideable category.

Prediction:  Continued SSW-SW winds through early Monday may continue to drive a small S windswell with marginally-rideable conditions possible at standout or sheltered breaks.  Winds are predicted to clock around to NW late in the day or early evening with the arrival/passage of a low pressure system.

Extended Forecast: TS Rafael is predicted to develop into a hurricane and make its way up the Eastern seaboard but stay off the coast and well-within our swell window.  Expect SE groundswell to start showing sometime Tuesday into Wednesday, with offshore winds currently predicted through that period.  Anticipate the swell to continue but shift more E, and winds to come around more side-shore, in his wake for the latter half of the work-week.

Looking way ahead: potential for a new round of SE swell developing late-week into early weekend.  Updates to follow…

Wednesday 10/10/12 Report and Prediction

Report:  Some E-ENE windswell, but winds are still onshore at 6AM.

Prediction: Without going into an over-explainy-explanation: the low is dragging/trailing a bit more than modeled/hoped, so the wind predictions are looking a bit questionable now, with the wind-shift potentially holding off until a bit later in the day, and possibly having a healthy SSW tilt to it (there is a lot of conflict among the more reliable models that are usually in accord).  We are just going to have to take a wait-and-see approach and monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date reports and forecasts.

Extended Forecast: Like most windswells, this will likely be a mostly-one-day event, with significantly smaller leftovers for Thursday. Some small mid-period background swell may develop late Thursday and wax-and-wane into early Saturday with a mixed bag of winds for that period (some offshore, some side-shore; check sources of local weather for up-to-date reports and forecasts).  Potential new round of South windswell may develop late weekend into early next work-week; check back for updates).

Tuesday 10/08/12 Report and Prediction

Report:  It’s rainy.  It’s windy.  It’s sloppy.  It’s driving up some windswell, but not something most would consider rideable.

Prediction: This low pressure system should push off Wednesday AM, bringing stiff SW winds in its wake mid-/late-morning, cleaning up the E-ENE windswell.  As a side-thought, maybe this windswell will carve up the dismally-featureless bars that are plaguing much of central NJ beaches.  Fingers crossed!

Extended Forecast: Like most windswells, this will likely be a mostly-one-day event, with significantly smaller leftovers for Thursday.  Not much heading into the weekend past that, but some background swell may develop late Friday into early Saturday, but winds look a bit iffy (sideshore N-NNE?) for that period.  Potential new round of South windswell may develop late weekend into early next work-week; check back for updates.

Gallery Surfboards Honeybadger for Professor Sak

Ridden to local and internet fame by Chris Huch, the Honeybadger by Gallery Surfboards has left it’s mark in its short time thus far. You can check out the official word and some shots of Chris at Gallery Surfboards

Now, I have one for myself.  In case you are wondering why it has the “totally 80’s” theme goin’ on, it is Rick DiJeanne’s airbrush interpretation of my first surfboard (a 6’0″ Hotline).

 

 

Monday 10/01/12 Report and Prediction

Report:  Small-scale background surf in the knee-thigh high range with West winds.  Conditions are swamped out from the (big) high-tide at most breaks, but those select spots that can handle the water are holding a small wave that is decent for a longboard or maybe a fatty fish, and at one of the not-so-secret standouts I checked this AM was holding a consistent stomach-high peak with a few shortboards on it, so it’s out there somewhere if you have the time and determination to go hunting for it.

Prediction:  Set your sights low and you may have fun is the call for today.  That said, the low-incoming tide push this afternoon will be your best bet to maximize what small wave the ocean has to offer.  Winds may tilt a bit more SW this afternoon, but I *think* the moderate temps and partial cloud cover may be able to stave off the dreaded warm-weather-induced windshift to the S-SSE.

Extended Forecast:  Small background groundswell swell looks to wax and wane over the course of the work-week, peaking in the middle, courtesy of Nadine, who is still (remarkably) milling about out there.  We are also predicted to get a round of onshore winds Tuesday-Wednesday; probably not strong enough/with enough fetch to generate a bona fide windswell, but it might introduce enough cross-swell action to break up the long-period lines.  Offshore winds look to return Thursday-Friday for the down-swinging swell.

 

Sunday 09/30/12 Report and Prediction

Yesterday’s Anything But Popouts/NJ Surf Show event at Joey Harrison’s Surf Club in Ortley Beach was quite a success.  As a bonus, there was at least a catch-able wave for the surf contest portion of the event; while the waves were not going off, the competitors were.  I am going to try to post a write-up regarding the event, but need some time to compile the info and request some photos from those who photo-documented the day.  Until then, you can see some photos and comments regarding the event by checking out the “NJ Surf Show” and “Gallery Surfboards” pages on Facebook, for starters (I’ll add other names to this as I discover them myself).

Report:  Small-scale background swell and high tides this AM are resulting in swamped conditions, but as the tide begins to ebb mid-morning we should start to see some small but rideable waves peek through for a longboard or fat small-wave board.

Prediction: W-WSW winds are predicted for the day; I think it should stay cool enough to sustain the offshore flow, but with sunny skies and temperatures flirting with the 70’s, one must be concerned that winds could be pulled around from the S-SSE.  If the wind does stay offshore, the incoming could yield a boost to the small-scale surf in the afternoon.

Extended Forecast:  A little bit of a boost in background swell looks likely for Monday, with winds looking to remain offshore, bouncing between WNW and WSW.  In fact, this background swell looks to wax and wane over the course of the work-week, with offshore/side-offshore winds for the majority of it (right now it looks like the only day that will be onshore/sideshore is Tuesday, which could add a windswell component into the mix for Wednesday).  I’ll update on the details of this late Monday or Tuesday.

Wave Prediction for the Weekend and Important Announcement

Report:  No report today; way too busy at work in the field to get eyes-on.

Saturday: Small-scale background bump for Saturday, with W-WNW winds predicted for most, if not all, of the day.  Big tide running, so target the early afternoon low/low-incoming tide for your best bet unless you have a secret spot that handles the smallest of swells and the highest of tides… and bring a small-wave board.  Announcement/Reminder: Don’t forget the Local Summer/Anything but Popouts/NJ Surf Show starts at 8AM on the beach in front of the Surf Club in Ortley Beach.

Sunday: More of the same, with W-WSW winds predicted and perhaps a little more energy in the form of small mid-period background swell peeking through.

Early Work Week: Potential for a new round of sideshore winds and SE windswell setting up for late Monday or early Tuesday.  Check back early work-week for an update.

 

Saturday 09/22/12 Report and Prediction

Report: Some mid-period E swell in the waist- to chest-high range this AM with light S-SSE winds.  It is definitely disorganized but not torn-up by the wind (yet).

Prediction: South winds are predicted to ramp up a bit this afternoon into the evening, but could tilt SSW late in the day.  This will both tear up the current mid-period background swell that is running and drive up a new hard-angled S windswell component.  Winds look to go NW-WNW overnight, so Sunday should offer markedly cleaning mix-swell conditions.

Extended Forecast:  The mid-period background groundswell component is modeled to hold into early work-week, with winds looking offshore for Monday and likely early Tuesday.  As always, I recommend you monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information.