Late-night comment regarding the eariler update

The prediction, as posted earlier (see below) still stands, with the additional comment that the numbers for the swell have improved a little bit, but the wind spin/shift to SW-WSW might happen a little later in the morning than originally modeled, so keeping current with the up-to-date wind reports, buoy readings, and surf reports may prove to be key.

Monday 04/30/12 Report and Prediction

Report: Flat.

Prediction:  A round of low pressure is slated to move through our area tonight into early tomorrow, bringing rain and onshore/sideshore S-SSE winds.  While a bit of S-SSE windswell may be generated, neither the duration nor the fetch are all that impressive; anticipate short-period windswelly conditions if you are planning to get in as it is one of those setups that could fall anywhere along the meh-to-fun continuum.  Winds are predicted to make a rotation to the SW-WSW by mid-morning, and low tide is right around 10AM, so at least the factors for an incoming-tide-push appear to be aligned to maximize the conditions.  As always, I recommend you keep your eyes on the flags and online resources to make the best go-time call.

Extended Forecast:  Monderate E-ENE winds return late Tuesday through Wednesday, maybe stirring up a less-than-significant windswell/windchop, again with a relatively short period.  Unfortunately, winds look like they are likely to swing sideshore S-SSW instead of getting pulled more offshore in the wake of the front during the latter half of the week.  Check back mid-week for an update.

Thursday 04/26/12 Report and Prediction

Report:  Light onshore winds and leftover E/SE waves.  Nothing great, but I suppose you could get a few decent waves at standout breaks, particularly those with some sort of structure, before the winds come up later this morning or early afternoon.

Prediction:  Well, we did luck out and wind up with returning offshore winds last night, salvaging an evening session, but unfortunately it looks like the front is dragging its heels and will likely not allow the offshore winds to arrive until very late in the day (most likely after dark).  As always, I recommend you keep your eyes on the flags and online resources to make the best go-time call.

Extended Forecast:  The other unfortunate aspect of the current setup is that offshore NW-WNW winds are predicted to ramp up quite a bit around midnight, knocking down whatever windswell is generated by the onshore blow later today.  That all said, I could see a small mid-period SE groundswell spinning off the back of the low as it moves offshore, so it is possible we could see rideable conditions early tomorrow AM under stiff offshore winds.  If so, your best bet would likely be somewhere with a little wind blockage to minimize the blow-back-effect.  Minimal-to-flat conditions are likely for the weekend with high pressure sitting over us and no significant wave-producing systems in proximity at sea.

Wednesday 04/25/12 Report and Prediction

04/25/12 Report:  We are still seeing remnant mid-period ESE swell this morning; after a period of light offshore winds early, winds came around and up out of the S-SSE around 9AM and continue to blow steadily.

Prediction: A weak high-low pressure interaction is predicted for mid-day, possibly bringing scattered showers.  While not much of a swell-driver, it could add a minor cross-swell/chop from the SSE.  The mass of this weather event will likely remain to the north (North Jersey and NY) of the CNJ and SNJ coastal areas, so it could draw the winds SW as it passes by/through late-afternoon/evening.  As always, I recommend you keep your eyes on the flags and online resources to make the best go-time call.

Extended Forecast:  The aforementioned weather is only the precursor/forerunner of a more significant rain event that will pass through our area late tonight through early Thursday, bringing with it more rain and more S-SSE windswell.  The timing of the passage of the front is a little suspect and worrisome, but from the current vantage point it looks like we could be seeing offshore winds by late-afternoon or early evening.  Again, I strongly recommend you keep your eyes on the flags and online resources to make the best go-time call.

I plan to update sometime Thursday AM or early afternoon with an update that will hopefully provide greater resolution.


Monday 04/23/12 Report

The prediction from yesterday basically stands as-is, with one (good) caveat: the wind has a little more SW tilt in it than anticipated, making for at least semi-clean (albeit still a bit washy and disorganized) waves this AM at more East-facing and/or sheltered breaks.  Keep your fingers crossed that the winds continue to tilt in this direction as they increase later this AM/afternoon (and don’t revert to the predicted SSW-S angle), which may salvage a late-afternoon/evening session.

As always, I recommend you keep your eyes on the flags and online resources to make the best go-time call.

Otherwise, refer to yesterday’s prediction for the outlook for the first half of the work-week.

Sunday 04/22/12 Report and Prediction

Report:  As expected, we are seeing some rainy weather, onshore NE-ENE winds, and building swell.  It’s going to be sloppy and choppy through the remainder of the day.


Prediction:  It looks like the worst of the weather is still to come; heavy rain and winds from the SE-SSE are predicted overnight Sun-Mon, driving up a solid mid-period SE swell.  As of right now, the wind outlook is pretty suspect for Monday: winds are predicted to be huffing from the SW-SSW, but I am seeing most indicators pointing to a more sideshore than offshore direction, so I have this sinking feeling that we might get skunked tomorrow unless you know of an uber-sheltered or tucked-away break.  As always, I recommend you keep your eyes on the flags and online resources to make the best go-time call.


Extended Forecast:  The silver lining to tomorrow’s outlook may come in the form of bigger-than-usual second-day leftovers and more favorable SW winds for Tuesday, and possibly even stretching into mid-week with continued (albeit shorter-period) swell and SW-WSW winds.  Again, keep your eyes on the flags and online resources to up-to-date information, and check back here frequently as I will update if/when I see a significant change in the outlook.


04/20/12 Report and Prediction

Alright, alright… trying something new. It is obvious we have a new format going here (see Brent’s post below), with the intent of easing the process of updating content so we can be a little more free-style, dynamic, and up-to-date; including our efforts to update the report and prediction.

So, let’s get down to business:

Report: Today we saw the continuation of the mid-period E swell and light to moderate winds. While I missed the AM session due to other obligations and cannot offer a first-hand report, I do have credible reports that it was a decent time before the tide dropped out and winds came up.

Prediction: More of the same, swell-wise, for Saturday, with South winds predicted for the entirety of the day. There are some models indicating the winds may be a bit lighter with a SSW tilt early AM before coming around and up a bit from the South by mid-morning.

Extended Forecast: Fading E swell on Sunday with N-NNE winds predicted for most of the day. A new low is predicted to come barreling through overnight Sunday-Monday, bringing hard SSE winds, driving up a new South windswell. As the front clears out and high pressure comes into play on Monday, winds should come around to an offshore angle, most likely SW or WSW; details are TBD and will be detailed during my next update sometime Sunday.