05/25/12 Report and Prediction

Back on the scene… sorry about the lack of updates recently; I’ve been in the weeds at work, had some computer issues at home, and with the E background swell waxing and waning with a variety of onshore/sideshore winds I figured those local and in the know would go if & when it got good and those who needed to travel would probably be disappointed with the time investment and luck required to catch the finicky conditions.

Report: Small, weak windswell and light onshore winds.  Not looking too appetizing, but if you are jonesing you might be able to find an OK wave at standout/sheltered breaks.

Prediction: Sideshore winds are predicted to come up a bit from the S-SSE this afternoon, which could renew the windswell a little but slop it up a bit as well.  SW winds are predicted for the AM; while the swell numbers do not look all that enticing, the winds will be reasonably favorable, especially at East-facing and sheltered breaks, and you might be able to beat the crowds as the Friday-arrivers sleep off their hangovers and the late-arrivers start to filter in.  Anticipate winds to come around S-SSE as the day warms up.

Extended Forecast: A low skirting by to our south (ejecting off the DelMarVa/SNJ region) may bring a little precipitation and drive up a new SSE windswell, but right now winds look like a mix of onshore/sideshore for the second half of the weekend.  Offshore SW-WSW winds are likely return for early Memorial Day Monday, but I suspect Sunday’s minor swell may prove to be ephemeral, with small leftovers at best left for early week.  As always, I suggest you monitor local sources of weather and reports for the most up to date wind info and current conditions.

Thursday 05/17/12 Report and Prediction

(Afternoon) Report:  Sorry for no AM update, I was on the road and in the weeds all day at work.  After a morning of mid-period SE-ESE swell and North winds, the warmth of the day has pulled the winds to the SE-ESE, but the winds are pretty light-to-moderate and the swell has enough push that at least the standout spots still hold rideable conditions.

Prediction:  Moderate+ E-ENE winds are in the outlook for Friday, but the good news is that we should see an up-tick/renewal of mid-period ESE background swell.  One of those potential could-be-fun-despite-the-winds days, especially since the water has warmed significantly.  As always, I suggest you monitor local sources of weather for the most up to date wind reports and predictions.

Extended Forecast: Continuation of onshore winds and mid-period background swell for Saturday.  The likely issue will be the more-East angle of the swell and that the winds will likely pick up a bit and be more sideshore NE for Sunday, which could cross conditions up quite a bit.  Check back late work-week or early weekend for the next update.

Wednesday 05/16/12 Report and Prediction

Report:  This morning we have some SE windswell and SW winds in the stomach- to shoulder-high range.  Not perfectly groomed because of the side-off angle of the winds, but plenty clean enough.

Prediction: Winds are predicted to come around more WSW as the morning goes on, but anticipate a potential tilt/shift to the S-SSW late morning/early afternoon as the day heats up and pulls the winds around sideshore.  Low is around 10, so hopefully the low-incoming push and winds cooperate.

Extended Forecast: Some swell is predicted to stick around though Thursday; winds are looking a less-favorable N early and then light onshore in the late morning/early afternoon.  Cloud cover could keep the wind down, so we could still be looking at rideable conditions through the day.  Smaller leftovers may even hang in there into Friday, with variable light-to-moderate onshore winds.

Monday 05/14/12 Report and Prediction

Report:  Small-scale hard-angled remnant S windswell with S-SSW winds.  Not all that impressive but you might be able to find a little peak for a big board hiding on the leeward side of a jetty somewhere.

Prediction:  Low pressure arriving later today/tonight should bring some precipitation and increasing S-SSE winds, which in turn should drive up a new hard-angled S-SSE windswell Tuesday into Wednesday.  Right now it looks like the low will start to push off on Wednesday, bringing winds SW and eventually WSW in the late afternoon/evening.  I will update again tomorrow if/when the timing of the cleanup becomes clear; until then, as always, I suggest you monitor local sources of weather for the most up to date wind reports and predictions.

Extended Forecast:  Some mid-period SE-ESE swell might spin off the back of the low and hold into Thursday, with N-NNW winds currently predicted.  Again, I will address this in my next update as the models resolve some of the instability inherent and typical in forecasts in excess of 48hrs.

Wednesday 05/09/12 Report and Prediction

Report:  A SSE windswell has arrived, but it looks like the winds are unfortunately going to stay tilted to the SSW for most of the day.  Obviously, East-facing sheltered breaks are making the most of it.

Prediction: There is a glimmer of hope for a SW tilt by dark, but it is likely that it will be too little, too late by then.  That (disappointingly) said, it looks like some of the swell should make it through until Thursday, with grooming NW winds predicted.  If any updates to the models and predictions change in a way that I think will affect the outlook, I’ll update this evening.  Otherwise, as always, I highly recommend you monitor sources of local weather information for the most up-to-date wind predictions.

Extended Forecast: Much smaller background leftovers for Friday, but with NW-WNW winds predicted, it will at least make the most of it.

Tuesday 05/08/12 Report and Prediction

Report:  winds from the S-SSE and building windswell.

Prediction:  Yesterday’s prediction stands, more or less, but with the worrisome caveat that Wednesday’s winds now look like they will have a bit more SSW in them than originally hoped and might have a bit more velocity than what is desired to result in a bona fide cleanup.  Keep your fingers crossed that they favor a SW tilt as the more it comes around the cleaner conditions will be, particularly at more East-facing and protected breaks.  As always, I highly recommend you monitor sources of local weather information for the most up-to-date wind predictions.

Extended Forecast:  We could be looking at a smalll mid-period East background swell mixed with SSE windswell leftovers under stiff NNW-NW winds for Thursday.  I will update as/if details that might affect the outlook emerge.

Monday 05/07/12 Report and Prediction

Report:  Sorry for the lack of a timely report today, I was a bit under the weather this past weekend and overwhelmed at work today.  I do hear there was a decent little mid-period East background swell in the water under light onshore/sideshore winds, but can’t testify to that personally.

Prediction:  It looks like we are in for a bit of a S-SSE blow overnight through Tuesday, which should generate some hard-angled South windswell.

Extended Forecast:  As the low moves off, winds should come around to offshore winds in in its wake on Wednesday.  Right now it appears that we are looking at moderate SW-SSW winds, which could result in a bit of a slow-to-cleanup scenario at East-facing beaches in CNJ, and possibly only a semi-cleanup at the south-facing coastline of SNJ, but at least it does not currently look like we will be getting those ripping SW-SSW winds that plagued all but the most sheltered breaks during our last significant swell.  As always, I highly recommend you monitor sources of local weather information for the most up-to-date wind predictions.  Looking even further ahead, we should be looking at a small potential mid-period East background swell/leftovers spun off the backside of the low out to sea under and NNW-NW winds; details TBD in the next update.

Friday 05/04/12 Report and Prediction

Report:  The mid-period E swell has definitely hopped up overnight, even a bit more than anticipated.  It is difficult to get a good read on it through the early-morning fog, but I’m seeing waist-stomach high average waves with standout sets in the chest-to-possibly shoulder range, so get on it if you can.  Winds are pretty light/dead right now, and predicted to go SW to even WSW later this morning.  Of course, with the day heating up we could see a warm-weather-induced windshift to the SSE later today, so bear that in mind when making your plans.
Prediction:  Basically stands as-is from yesterday, so see below.


2PM Update/comment: unfortunately the winds never went true SW but rather indecisively wavered between S and SSW, and have now gone S-SSE with the sunny weather and high temperatures.  Keep your fingers crossed that they swing SW-WSW late afternoon/early evening, as they often do as the day begins to cool and the air over the land starts to cool and sink.



Thursday 05/03/12 Report and Prediction

Report: Small-scale E background waves and light South winds. Not much out there, but see a few scattered surfers making the most of it on bigger boards.

Prediction: Wave heights should pick up a little through the day, particularly early afternoon with the incoming push. S winds might pick up a bit too, but the cloud cover should keep temps down and therefore temper the winds a bit. The small East swell could pick up a little bit tomorrow (not expecting any significant swell, but we should see something equivalent or perhaps a bit larger than today) due to an increase in the period, and right now wind predictions are suggesting they might have a little SW tilt to them, which could yield rideable waves at East-facing and protected breaks.

Extended Forecast: Light to moderate onshore winds and minimal short-period East windswell for the weekend. Potential setup for a South windswell mid-week. Check back late-weekend or early work-week for an update.

05/01/12 Report and Prediction

Report:  Swell angle is good but the wave period leaves a bit to be desired, and the winds are only now beginning to flirt with their turn from the S-SSW to the SW, although it looks like a number of real-time sensors in the northern Monmouth County area are logging legit SW-WSW.  Fingers crossed that we see that happen sooner than later because this swell does not look to have a lot of resolve and may not hold through the evening.  As always, I recommend you keep your eyes on the flags and online resources to make the best go-time call.

Prediction:  Monderate E-ENE winds look to return late tonight through Wednesday, maybe stirring up a less-than-significant windswell/windchop, again with a relatively short period.  Unfortunately, winds look like they are likely to swing sideshore S-SSE instead of getting pulled more offshore in the wake of the front on Thursday.

Extended Forecast: There is potential mid-period E background swell showing up on some models for Friday.  Check back late tomorrow or Thursday for an update.