Tuesday 07/24/12 Report and Prediction

Report:  Some small clean background lines coming through earlier this AM got snuffed out by the mid-day high tide and then trampled on by increased NW winds this evening.

Prediction:  We are still modeled to receive some small increased-period groundswell on Wednesday, with winds looking NW-NNW early and coming around to more W-WSW in the afternoon/evening.  As always, we could see a warm-weather-induced wind-shift to the S-SSE a the day heats up, so keep that in mind.

Extended Forecast: the underlying groundswell is predicted to stretch into/through Thursday, but with substantial SW-SSW winds that could put a cross-chop on it at all but the most East-facing/sheltered breaks.  As always, I recommend you monitor sources of local weather info for up to date wind and swell conditions.  Check back for an update mid/late work-week.

Sunday 07/22/12 Report and Prediction

Report: Everything panned out more or less as predicted for the weekend; we got to slog out a relatively sizeable but somewhat disorganized session during the latter half of Saturday, and had cleaner but still onshore conditions for today.

Prediction: The windswell portion of today’s swell will likely fade a bit by Monday, but a small underlying mid-period ESE groundswell is predicted to start filling in behind it, so we should still see rideable surf through the early part of the work-week, albeit on a smaller scale.  Target low-incoming sessions for your best bet.  Monday looks to have SW to SSW winds, and Tuesday is looking to have more favorable W-WSW winds.  Of course, as is typical of the summer, we have to be concerned about warm-weather-induced windshifts to the S-SSE.

Extended Forecast: The models are suggesting a small-but-long-period ESE groundswell for late Tuesday into Wednesday; check back for my next update late Monday or early Tuesday.

Friday 07/20/12 Report and Prediction

Report:  It ain’t no secret that we have rain and hard onshore winds today.  Plenty of windswell in the water, but also looking plenty unrideable out there today.

Prediction: The winds are not predicted to back down all that much today, so expect lumpy, washy, HH+ windswell to persist through the remainder of the day.  Moderate-to-strong onshore winds are predicted through Saturday, so I suspect conditions will remain unrideable (unless you want to slog out a “riders on the storm” session).

Extended Forecast:  The winds look to remain onshore but back down quite a bit for Sunday, so that will be your best bet for the weekend.  As always, I recommend you monitor sources of local weather info for up to date wind and swell conditions.  Winds look to come around to more of a S-SW-SSW pattern early work-week, with a new small groundswell possibly in the mix.  I will be sure to update late weekend regarding the early work-week prediction.

Tuesday 07/17/12 Report and Prediction update

Report:  Still some lingering mid-period ESE groundswell out there in the thigh- to waist-high range or so.  The sets are intermittent and the sandbars are a bit screwed up (flattened-out), but there are a few breaks here and there holding some form; you just have to go looking for it.

Prediction:  I would suggest that wave quality might improve a bit as the tide drains, and particularly on the low-incoming tide after 1PM, but there is a good chance, with all this hot weather, that the winds will turn S-SSE this afternoon.  Monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information.

Extended Forecast: More of the same for Wednesday, with small mid-period background swell, offshore/side-offshore winds, hot weather, and a high tide swamping things out early in the day.  The heat wave is predicted to break late Wednesday/early Thursday, with potentially violent T-storms coming in the mix late tomorrow.  Some onshore winds Thursday-Friday may push up a new windswell for late work-week/early weekend.  Check back for updates as details develop.

Friday 07/13/12 Report and Prediction

Report: In an interesting twist contrary to the sources available last night, we do indeed have light offshore winds this AM, grooming the windswell leftovers from yesterday.  It is on the small side, but standout breaks will likely hold some decent peaks and lines for an LB or small-wave board.  Low tide is approximately 9:30.

Forecast: We could see this small swell hold through the AM with the incoming tide push before getting swamped out in the afternoon.  Winds are predicted to go variable as the day goes on/heats up; they could maintain a SW-SSW tilt or go full-on SE; it all depends on just how hot it gets today and how much we are protected by cloud-cover.  Monitor sources of local weather for up to date wind information.

Extended Forecast:  Smaller/trace leftovers for early Saturday with offshore winds early, giving way to sideshore S-SSE.  It looks like we should see a small mid-period groundswell build overnight Saturday/Sunday into early next work-week, with the wind pattern characterized by offshore SW-WSW winds (with, of course, potential S-SSE winds in the afternoons).  As always, monitor sources of local weather for up to date wind information, and check back here mid/late weekend for an update.

Thursday 07/12/12 Report and Prediction Update

I have to be quick and concise with this update, so here it goes:

Report:  Yes, indeed, we do have some surf.  A bit disorganized by the onshore wind, but still some relief from our recent mini/flat spell.  Looking waist high, give or take.

Prediction: The outlook has not changed much except that it now looks like we might not  see the anticipated strong offshore wind pattern for Friday, but the variable sideshore/side-offshore winds should be light enough to not slop things up too bad.  Some more swell than originally anticipated might sneak into early Saturday, as a result.  Monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information.

Extended Forecast:  Check back tomorrow for an update concerning the weekend outlook (as encouragement it looks like some combo swell should materialize as previously discussed, with potential periods of offshore winds).

 

Wednesday 07/11/12 Report and Prediction

Wednesday (evening) Report:  It’s been a while since my last update due to a hectic schedule; in fact, this is an evening report vs. my traditional morning one.  Waves are running in the waist-high range with light/moderate onshsore winds.  Tide is a bit high but draining so you might be able to find a break working enough for a LB or fatty small-wave board.

Prediction: Onshore winds are predicted to continue overnight and the E swell is predicted to build a bit into tomorrow.  Winds do not look favorable for the morning, but might back down a bit as the day goes on.

Extended Forecast:  Offshore winds are predicted for Friday, but by then the windswell looks to have faded a bit.  Still, there might be something hanging around, particularly for the early session.  The weekend looks to start off with minor/minimal swell conditions, potentially followed by a combo windswell/ mid-period background build Saturday afternoon into Sunday.  Check back late work-week for an update.

07/04/12 Report and Prediction update

Report:  Trace mid-period background swell continues today in the shin- to knee-high range.  The tide is high and swamping it out at the moment, but maybe later when the tide drains and turns back around (low is approximately 2:30 PM) we will see a longboardable wave.  Maybe.

Prediction: Trace background swell remains on the charts for the next few days, so expect more of the same barely-there swell conditions, bearing in mind standout breaks are likely going to pick them up better than others, particularly during low-incoming tides.  Be sure to pack your choice smallest-wave board and a “well, at least it is not totally flat” attitude if you decide to make a go of it.

Extended Forecast: This minor background swell waxes and wanes on the models through remainder of the work week, possibly stretching into the early weekend.  Potential build of small windswell mid-/late-weekend; details TBD.  Check back later in the work-week for an update.

07/02/12 Report and Prediction

Report:  A small mid-period ESE groundswell is running this AM; lets call it knee-high with waist-high sets at standout breaks, groomed by offshore winds.  Not all that large, but good form and some of the more pockety sections look to have a little push, so it is looking pretty fun for a LB or even small-wave-slayer type board.

Prediction: Today’s small groundswell should hold through the day, perhaps getting a little boost in the early afternoon from the low-incoming tide.  Offshore winds are predicted for the entire day, but as always there is a good chance of a warm-weather-induced windshift to the S-SSE as the day heats up.

Extended Forecast: While nothing significant is on the charts for the first half of the work-week, the small mid-period background swell is predicted to wax and wane over the course of the next few days, with a mixed bag of winds (mostly offshore to side-offshore; monitor sources of local weather for up to date wind information and predictions). Check back mid-week for an update.

 

Here is a nice photo of Phil Browne, owner of Glide Surf Co., last Saturday, shot by Rob Cusick.

 

 

Phil Browne Glide Surf Co.

06/30/12 Report and Prediction

Report: TS Debby has been downgraded and her remnants are moving out to sea.  While the predicted models don’t fully support it, my eyes-on check this AM revealed what look like a few early-arriving groundswell lines already showing, mixed in with some leftover mid-period stuff from yesterday, all groomed by light offshore winds.  A little walled-out, so you are probably going to need something with a little foam and cruise to gain early-entry and start moving down the line.  The tide is low and still dropping, so finding a location with some feature to the sand (the flat bars in town are not working at all) will be key if you want to get in sooner than later.

Prediction:  Low incoming (low is approximately 11AM) holds the most promise, but while offshore SW-WSW winds are predicted all day, with temps headed into the high 80’s there is a good chance of a warm-weather-induced South wind-shift late AM/early afternoon.

Extended Forecast:  Small groundswell courtesy of Debby/Debby’s remnants are predicted to wax and wane through the remainder of the weekend, with light and variable (mostly offshore but with varying tilt) winds predicted through the period as well.  Monitor sources of local weather for up to date wind information and key into local reports for current surf conditions.

Looking ahead, I see some groundswell numbers on the models for early work-week, which could be some leftovers from the Debby disturbance/trail and/or some long-period lines from another low pushing off the SE/mid-Atlantic seaboard clearing out the current high pressure ridge associated with the current heat-wave.  Check back for an update late-weekend/early work-week.