Friday 08/31/12 Report and Prediction

Report:  A little smaller than anticipated/hoped today.  Looking in the knee- to thigh-high range.  At least the wind is offshore SW-WSW, and we could see an incoming push early afternoon as the tide turns and starts to fill, but also beware the possibility of a wind-shift to the S-SSE as the day heats up.

Prediction:  More of the same, swell-wise, for Saturday, but with NW-NNW winds early, giving way to onshore ESE-SE.  As always, I recommend you monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information.

Extended Forecast: We have two tropical systems at play in the Atlantic: Hurricane Kirk is well-offshore and likely partially-responsible for this waxing-and-waning underlying ESE groundswell we have been seeing over the last few days, but he is looking to be a “fish” storm and will most likely remain far offshore and move off to the NNE.  Still, anticipate continued underlying groundswell through the Holiday weekend, peaking on Sunday.  Unfortunately, it looks like Sunday/Monday will also be plagued by sideshore/onshore winds from the S-SSE.  Tropical Storm Leslie is also well-offshore and far to the South, but predicted to develop into a Hurricane and hook NW-NNW, most likely entering our swell window by mid-week.  Winds are looking like a mixed bag and not all that encouraging through much of this event, but those details will be ironed out as the time draws closer.  Lots going on and lots of variables at play, so I’ll probably update again before the holiday is over.  As always, I recommend you monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information.

Thursday 08/30/12 Report and Prediction

Report:  Still some small background-style mid-period swell in the water today, with offshore winds.  A bit swamped by a big AM tide at all but standout high-tide breaks, but it is starting to ebb, improving conditions elsewhere a bit.

Prediction:  Conditions will likely be best early afternoon after the tide turns and pushes things up a bit.  This is, of course, unless a warm-weather wind-shift to the S-SSE materializes (right now winds are predicted to be offshore all day, but with sunny conditions and highs near 80, it is possible we might be the recipient of afternoon side-shore conditions).  A bump-up in ESE background groundswell is anticipated for Friday, with winds looking to be dominated by an offshore wind-pattern.  As always, I recommend you monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information.

Extended Forecast:  Similar swell for Saturday, but winds will likely come around sideshore-onshore.  SW-SSW winds on Sunday may greet a building groundswell.  Again, I recommend you monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information.  Looking way ahead, increasing longer-period East groundswell is modeled for late-weekend into the early half of the work-week, but bad onshore/sideshore winds are predicted as well.  Check back for a mid/late-weekend update.

Tuesday 08/28/12 Report and Prediction

Report:  Isaac is in the Gulf and a non-player for our swell window.  SSW-SW winds are semi-grooming waist-chest-high  ESE swell  groundswell from (post-tropical storm) Joyce, but it does not have a ton of kick yet this AM.  Tide is high but draining (low is around 11:30).

Prediction: The period is predicted to come up a bit late AM, and the winds are predicted to even out to a more W-WSW angle, both of which should improve conditions, especially on the low-incoming tide mid-day/early afternoon.  Winds are predicted to remain offshore all day, but as always, beware a potential swing to the S-SSE as the day heats up.

Extended Forecast:  The swell should continue through tomorrow, but winds are predicted to go sideshore from the North for much of Wednesday.  After that, as the remnants of Joyce move off and dissipate, the swell will fade quite a bit, but it looks like we will likely have some form of surf through the end of the work-week and potentially into the weekend with an offshore-wind pattern dominating that period, maximizing the smaller conditions.  Monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information and check back late work-week for an update.

Thursday 08/23/2012 Report and Prediction

Report:  Much of the same as yesterday; small-scale mid-period background swell with occasional pulses of longer period waves.  Light offshore winds early, with winds shifting and increasing from the SE as the day heats up.

Prediction: A similar pattern through the end of the work week; smaller mid-period background swell with longer period pulses from the Low-High interaction of TS Isaac and perhaps a little of TS Joyce in there as well.  Again, I expect wave heights to increase a bit over the next  few days as Isaac closes the distance on his Westward path and as Joyce develops and moves Northwestward as well.  Winds are predicted to be light-to-moderate and variable in direction over the next few days, providing periodic opportunities to take advantage of whatever swell finds its way to our shores.

Extended Forecast:  Continued building mid-period/long-period combo swell for the weekend, but with potentially troublesome onshore winds.  As always, I recommend you monitor sources of local weather info for up to date wind and swell conditions.

Tropical Outlook: Isaac’s track has shifted southward once again, looking like he will now be turning towards Puerto Rico and  FL and likely side-slip laterally into the far-Eastern Gulf of Mexico.  So Isaac will likely not be an significant/optimal swell-generator in the near future (but it is still TBD whether or not his remnants will eject off the Carolinas or just run up the eastern seaboard and influence things next week).  The better news is Tropical Storm Joyce, who appears to be setting up for a more favorable path through our swell window.  I will monitor the situation and update accordingly; until then, I’ve linked to wunderground.com’s projected path for Joyce as a teaser:

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Wednesday 08/22/12 Report and Prediction

Report: Small-scale mid-period background swell in the knee- to thigh-high range, with occasional longer-period pulses of longer period waves that are approaching waist high or so.  Light onshore NE winds early, with increasing winds from the SE as the day heats up.

Prediction:  A similar pattern through the end of the work week; smaller mid-period background swell with longer period pulses from the Low-High interaction of TS Isaac (which should continue to build and eventually achieve hurricane-status).  I expect wave heights to increase a bit over the next  few days as Isaac closes the distance on his Westward path, and winds are predicted to be light-to-moderate and variable in direction over the next few days, providing periodic opportunities to take advantage of whatever swell finds its way to our shores.

Extended Forecast: Isaac’s track is still hard to nail-down, but I am pretty convinced that he will not be diving into the Gulf of Mexico, instead hooking towards Puerto Rico and Florida.  After that, things become even more fuzzy as the models can’t decide if he is going to travel Northward over land and run up the coastal states or hook North East back out to sea.  I’ll be monitoring things closely and updating when appropriate.

Sunday 08/19/12 Report and Prediction

Report:  Small-scale background “surf” (and I use that term loosely) today with N-NNE winds and a high tide coming up around 9AM.  Not much happenin’

Prediction:  winds are predicted to stay light and variable through today, but the relative lack of surf might make that irrelevant from a surfer’s point of view.  I suppose conditions may improve as the day goes on as the tide drains, but I anticipate a longboard-at-best scenario for the afternoon.

Extended Forecast:  Minimal/ephemeral windswell conditions, at best, for the early half of the work-week.  There is a Tropical system moving to the West that may develop into a named storm (Isaac).  The factors guiding/steering this system are not well-modeled, so it is tough to say exactly where it is going.  That said, if development continues, we could see some sort of groundswell off it sometime the latter half of the week/early weekend.  Check back mid-week for an update.

Thursday 08/09/12 Report and Prediction

Report:  Very small and weak background swell today.  Light offshore winds grooming the conditions, but no real lines to speak of so it is difficult to even make my “longboard if you are desperate” recommendation.

Prediction:  Winds will likely come around to the SSE as the day heats up.  S-SSE winds on Friday could push up a weak S windswell, but conditions are predicted to stay sideshore/onshore for the entire day.

Extended Forecast:  A low-pressure/high-pressure cold-front interaction kicking off the SE seaboard should push up a new mid-period ESE swell for the weekend, peaking mid-day Saturday and tapering off into longer-period leftovers for Sunday.  Right now, winds are looking SW-SSW for Saturday, and coming around to more SW-WSW on Sunday.  As always, I recommend you monitor sources of local weather info for up to date wind and swell conditions.

 

Wednesday 08/01/12 Report and Prediction

Report:  There is a little wave out there.  Moderate onshore winds, kinda weak with so-so form, but something to ride.

Prediction:  T-storms are predicted for our area this afternoon/evening.  With that, there is potential for an offshore wind-shift, but also for dangerous lightning.

Extended Forecast:  We are looking at a little bit of SSE swell build late Thursday into Friday.  Not significant swell, per se, but a bit of improvement over current conditions.  Winds are looking like a mixed bag of offshore/sideshore over that period, so I recommend you monitor sources of local weather info for up to date wind and swell conditions.  Looking way ahead, we might see some South windswell build late week/early weekend, but right now the winds are looking unfavorable through the weekend regarding wave quality.

Friday 07/27/12 Report and Prediction

Report: Today we have some background-style ESE swell in the 12-second, thigh- to stomach-high range with W-WSW winds grooming things nicely.  It is a little on the shallow side right now, with a low tide around 8:30, so we should see improving conditions  through the AM.

Prediction: With a big high tide around 2:45PM, we will likely see conditions start to get swamped-out late AM/early afternoon.  Of course, we could see a warm-weather-induced wind-shift to the S-SSE a the day heats up, so keep that in mind as well.

Extended Forecast: It looks like the background swell will back-down quite a bit for the weekend, but we may still see some small underlying swell for a small-wave board/longboard, particularly during the low-incoming pushes.  A mixed bag of variable winds are on the models, so I recommend you monitor sources of local weather info for up to date wind and swell conditions.

Tuesday 07/24/12 Report and Prediction

Report:  Some small clean background lines coming through earlier this AM got snuffed out by the mid-day high tide and then trampled on by increased NW winds this evening.

Prediction:  We are still modeled to receive some small increased-period groundswell on Wednesday, with winds looking NW-NNW early and coming around to more W-WSW in the afternoon/evening.  As always, we could see a warm-weather-induced wind-shift to the S-SSE a the day heats up, so keep that in mind.

Extended Forecast: the underlying groundswell is predicted to stretch into/through Thursday, but with substantial SW-SSW winds that could put a cross-chop on it at all but the most East-facing/sheltered breaks.  As always, I recommend you monitor sources of local weather info for up to date wind and swell conditions.  Check back for an update mid/late work-week.