Friday 11 April 2012 Report and Prediction

Friday 11 April 2013

Report:  Sloppy and building from the E-ENE earlier, now (late afternoon), the winds have calmed down a bit but still blowing SE at a decent clip, keeping conditions fairly uninviting.

Prediction: unfortunately, this swell is going to be on the down-swing overnight.  Offshore winds are predicted to come up in the pre-dawn hours, cleaning up but also knocking down the fading swell.  Despite the peak of the swell not synching well with daylight hours, I still think that tomorrow should see some fun mixed-swell conditions.

Extended Forecast:  Significantly smaller leftovers on Sunday, but offshore winds should groom conditions and allow for a follow-up, albeit small-wave, session.  Looking way ahead, much of next week looks to be dominated by side-shore S-SSE winds; check back frequently for an update when I see potential for favorable conditions.





Friday 04/05/13 Report and Prediction

Report: Minimal trace background swell with offshore/sideshore NW-NNW winds.
Prediction: A small mid-period SE background swell is predicted to fill in during the latter half of the day, so hopefully we will see a building trend that results in rideable surf by evening.  Fingers crossed.
Extended Forecast: Unfortunately it looks like this brief swell event is going to peak overnight, but some of should last into early Saturday. Winds are looking like a mixed bag of N-NNW early, eventually dropping out and giving way to SE in the afternoon; you will definitely need to keep an eye on wind reports and forecasts to time it right. Sideshore S-SSE winds on Sunday may drive some hard-angled windswell for early next work-week.

EDIT: 2PM update:  Still waiting for that bump to develop…

Monday 03/25/13 Report and Prediction

Report: Choppy, sloppy, Nor’easter conditions.

Prediction:  More of the same for the remainder of the day.  Winds are predicted to come around to NW-WNW overnight, yielding cleaner conditions tomorrow.  The swell angle is looking pretty East on this one, so surfbreaks with some structure or other feature to break up the lines may be necessary to alleviate the close-out issues.

Extended Forecast: Similar but significantly smaller leftover conditions for Wednesday (perhaps mini/flat by then).  Offshore winds and minimal conditions look to be the standard for the second half of the work-week.

Monday 18 March 2013 Wave Report and Prediction

Report: Small, choppy, sloppy, but building.

Prediction:  A significant ESE swell should build overnight Monday-Tuesday.  Offshore WNW winds predicted to come into play early- to mid-morning on Tuesday, grooming the swell for mid-morning or mid-day.

Extended Forecast: Strong offshore winds persist through the remainder of the work-week, with small leftovers at best on Wednesday morning and minimal conditions for the remainder of the week.  Swell-producing onshore winds may return over the weekend once the pattern breaks.  Check back later in the week for an update.

02/27/2013 Sorta-report

Report: Definitely some big surf out there, and now that the wind has come around to SW-WSW it’s starting to clean up, BUT all the coastal flooding this AM + debris left by Sandy on various inaccessible marsh surfaces = lots of dangerous jetsam in the water. I just saw a serious piling drift out of Little Egg Inlet, coming to a lineup near you (?). Be careful out there if you decide to charge it.

Prediction: Anticipate some mid-period East swell leftovers tomorrow AM, with offshore winds (WSW early coming around to WNW in afternoon), but you might have to plan around a pretty big mid-AM high tide around 9AM.

01/30/13 Report and Prediction

It’s been quite a while since our last official posting here, and while not a “triumphant return”, it is a return to normalcy, nonetheless.  Yes, we have been active on Facebook, attempting to bring you surf news and current events from our little corner of the surf world.  Sure, we’ve had a number of bangin’ swells since Sandy that we saw coming, but we were just not yet ready to call ’em.  Add to that the destruction and heartache lingers, travel in many barrier island towns is restricted, many beaches are still technically off-limits, and surfing and having any sort of fun is still the last thing on many peoples’ minds.

For those, and many other, reasons I cannot objectively identify what compelled me to make this post today as the recovery process, painfully frustrating and slow, is still an ongoing reality for me.  I cannot explain why, but something spoke to me today, so here I am now, and here goes my first report and prediction of 2013:

Report: Foggy, minimal swell; it’s the calm before the storm.

Prediction:  A strong differential in temperature and pressure is setting up over us for this evening, bringing with it potentially nasty and possibly violent, winds and weather this evening.  With the anticipated wind, rain, coastal flooding, thunder, lightning, and potential tornadoes comes the potential for a healthy South swell to develop overnight.

Extended Forecast: A shift to strong offshore winds is slated for tomorrow morning (check sources of local weather for specific timing), which should quickly groom a solid swell once they arrive.  While the winds could knock down the size a bit by the afternoon, something about the numbers suggest staying-power through the day to me.  Sticking around until Friday AM is questionable; however, with an early-AM incoming push I suppose something worthwhile may be available for the early-birds.

Outlook for future forecasts: To be honest, I’m way too busy to wholeheartedly commit to posting regularly-scheduled predictions and warn you that there may be another long period of radio silence.  I’ll also remind you this is a voluntary service to the surf community as we don’t currently generate any funds through ad-sales or sponsorships, so I reserve the right to concentrate on my family, personal business, and reconstruction of my home until the (saw)dust settles.  As usual, updates here will be announced on our Facebook page, so it would be wise to subscribe to that to be kept in the loop.  Thanks for understanding.

Saturday 10/27/12 Report and Prediction

Report: Some windswell out there today with onshore winds.  Rideable, but most will probably choose to batten down the hatches in preparation for Sandy.

Prediction: Sandy has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm, but don’t let that fool you into thinking we are out of the woods yet.  She will meet and hybridize with a developing noreaster/area of low pressure, barometric pressure is expected to bomb-out, and the hybrid storm is expected to get drawn back towards the mid-Atlantic coast, pushing a big storm surge ahead of her landfall.  The fact that her arrival coincides with a lunar high tide is going to exacerbate the surge.  The exact location of landfall is not clear, but most likely somewhere between DelMarVa and Long Island/Rhode Island.  Areas at and just to the north of the eye will likely see the worst winds and flooding, but this will be a (dimensionally) big storm so areas between Virgina and southern New England will likely be significantly affected.

Don’t be fooled into thinking that just because you made it through Irene relatively unscathed that Sandy will be equally painless; this is a whole different track, approach, setup, dynamic, etc.  Evacuations of low coastal areas are recommended and may very well become mandatory as there is no comparison between the two storms and Sandy may prove to be many times the storm that Irene ever hoped to be.

Extended Forecast:  As the storm moves inland, areas to the south of the center-of-rotation landfall zone will be the first to see offshore winds, followed by areas at and north of it.  Expect strong offshore winds to beat down the swell rather quickly, and be aware of dangerous conditions and debris as flooded-out areas and back-bays empty their contents back into the ocean.  For that reason, surfing post-storm is not advised and you should consider yourself one against nature if you choose to enter the water (which should always be your attitude, but especially in this case).

Friday 10/19/12 Report and Prediction

Report:  Some underlying mid-period ESE groundswell, but SSE winds are stepping all over it and introducing a bit of side-chop.

Prediction:  Much of the same through the rest of today, with winds possibly assuming a more S or even SSW tilt by dusk.  Winds are predicted to come around pretty strong from the SW overnight.  Saturday should see improved/improving conditions, with mixed ESE groundswell/S windswell and winds predicted to come around more WSW-W early or mid-morning.  Monitor sources of local weather for up to date wind information.

Extended Forecast:  Smaller leftover-style conditions with W-WNW winds predicted for Sunday, but I would not be surprised if a small-but-fun wave remains for low-incoming tide in the AM.   Looking way ahead, it looks like some small mid-period background swell might show early work-week.  Check back late-weekend for an update.

Sunday 10/14/12 Report and Prediction

Report: Small-scale hard-angled S windswell with SSW winds.  Nothing enticing, but I suppose somewhere might be breaking in the loosely-rideable category.

Prediction:  Continued SSW-SW winds through early Monday may continue to drive a small S windswell with marginally-rideable conditions possible at standout or sheltered breaks.  Winds are predicted to clock around to NW late in the day or early evening with the arrival/passage of a low pressure system.

Extended Forecast: TS Rafael is predicted to develop into a hurricane and make its way up the Eastern seaboard but stay off the coast and well-within our swell window.  Expect SE groundswell to start showing sometime Tuesday into Wednesday, with offshore winds currently predicted through that period.  Anticipate the swell to continue but shift more E, and winds to come around more side-shore, in his wake for the latter half of the work-week.

Looking way ahead: potential for a new round of SE swell developing late-week into early weekend.  Updates to follow…