Monday 06/11/12 Prediction

Report:  sorry, none for today; I was out on a boat for work and never got to lay eyes on the surf.

Prediction:  Increasing onshore winds Tuesday-Wednesday should dive up a new ESE windswell.  Currently, it looks like we are going to be stuck in a onshore/sideshore wind pattern for the work-week and possibly into the weekend.

Extended Forecast: Winds may back down a bit during the latter half of Wednesday, which might yield rideable conditions, depending on your definition and desperation level.  Light onshore winds are predicted for Thursday, but there is also a good chance the bulk of the windswell may fade by then.  Check back mid-week for an update.


Wednesday 06/06/12 Report and Prediction

Report:  Light offshore winds this AM and a mid-period E swell.  A big high tide is swamping out many breaks, but standouts are holding a fun wave.

Prediction:  Winds are predicted to come around light offshore by mid-morning and then should ramp up a bit by late morning/early afternoon from the SSE as the day heats up.

Extended Forecast: Some small ESE groundswell (think small but long-period… like 1′ at 12 seconds or so) is predicted to slowly build Thursday into Friday, with offshore winds predicted to dominate the latter half of the week.  Of course, there will always be the likelihood of a warm-weather-induced windshift to the SSE in the late AM or early afternoon as the day heats up.  As always, I recommend you monitor sources of local for up to date information concerning winds and waves.

Looking ahead: The background swell backs down for the weekend, but enough may hold for small-wave surfing.  Potential new round of windswell early next week.  Check back late work-week for an update.

Monday 06/04/12 Report and Prediction

Report:  After a weekend of waves and offshore winds, we still have some leftover groundswell, groomed by offshore winds, this AM.  The issue is the tide; a bit ol’ high tide at 7:45 is swamping out all but a few spots.  Going to have to deal with that issue if you are going to surf this morning.

Prediction: Unfortunately, as the tide drains and the water level becomes more favorable, the winds are predicted to come up from the NE.  The remainder of the day will likely see side-blown conditions.

Extended Forecast:  The NE winds should drive up a new ENE windswell component for Tuesday.  Winds are predicted to be up in the AM but back down a bit in the afternoon, so we may have a window of which to take advantage later tomorrow.  Mixed bag of windswell/underlying groundswell and variable winds for the second half of the week; check back mid-week for an update.

Thursday 05/31/12 Report and Prediction

Report:  Clean conditions under NW winds, but very small SE lines… looking knee- to thigh-high locally.  Standout breaks, particularly those on south-facing shorelines, might be picking up a little more energy and size, but not a banger of a swell by any means.

Prediction: We might see a small up-tick in swell as the AM goes on and the tide fills back in.  Winds are modeled to stay light and variable between the N-NW and W through the day, but as the day heats up we could just as likely see a wind-shift to the SSE.

Extended Forecast: Onshore winds return for Friday, generating a new SE windswell.  The low looks like it will kick off the coast overnight Friday-Saturday, followed by offshore winds in its wake for Saturday AM, so it appears we should see some waves for early weekend.  As of right now it appears that offshore winds and some small background groundswell could continue into Sunday-Monday.

Tuesday 05/28/12 Report and Prediction

Report:  Small background S-SSE swell and SW-WSW winds this AM.  Looking pretty weak, but well-groomed so I am sure there will be a few ok waves for a LB or fatty fish at standout breaks with the incoming-push from the rising tide (low is shortly after 7AM).

Prediction: Wind should come up from the S-SSE as the day goes on and heats up.  Unfortunately this will be a fairly localized event, without much fetch, so I don’t see much significant windswell building from it.

Extended Forecast:  An area of diffuse low pressure should move into our region overnight, but not be much of a swell-maker in itself.  However, winds look light-to-moderate on Wednesday, so we might have windows of reasonably clean surface conditions to work with whatever small swell (cannot rule out a small localized SE bump) is out there.

The remnants of TS Beryl are predicted to move off the SE seaboard late Wednesday, bringing an area of diffuse low pressure and T-stormy conditions to our region overnight Tues-Wed.  These remnants should cast at least some mid-period SE swell towards our region overnight Wednesday-Thursday.  Right now winds look like they should come up from the the N-NNW direction for Thursday.  As always, I suggest you monitor local sources of weather and reports for the most up to date wind info and current conditions.

Looking way ahead, we may see a building SE windswell Friday into Saturday.  Details to follow in the next update.

05/25/12 Report and Prediction

Back on the scene… sorry about the lack of updates recently; I’ve been in the weeds at work, had some computer issues at home, and with the E background swell waxing and waning with a variety of onshore/sideshore winds I figured those local and in the know would go if & when it got good and those who needed to travel would probably be disappointed with the time investment and luck required to catch the finicky conditions.

Report: Small, weak windswell and light onshore winds.  Not looking too appetizing, but if you are jonesing you might be able to find an OK wave at standout/sheltered breaks.

Prediction: Sideshore winds are predicted to come up a bit from the S-SSE this afternoon, which could renew the windswell a little but slop it up a bit as well.  SW winds are predicted for the AM; while the swell numbers do not look all that enticing, the winds will be reasonably favorable, especially at East-facing and sheltered breaks, and you might be able to beat the crowds as the Friday-arrivers sleep off their hangovers and the late-arrivers start to filter in.  Anticipate winds to come around S-SSE as the day warms up.

Extended Forecast: A low skirting by to our south (ejecting off the DelMarVa/SNJ region) may bring a little precipitation and drive up a new SSE windswell, but right now winds look like a mix of onshore/sideshore for the second half of the weekend.  Offshore SW-WSW winds are likely return for early Memorial Day Monday, but I suspect Sunday’s minor swell may prove to be ephemeral, with small leftovers at best left for early week.  As always, I suggest you monitor local sources of weather and reports for the most up to date wind info and current conditions.

Thursday 05/17/12 Report and Prediction

(Afternoon) Report:  Sorry for no AM update, I was on the road and in the weeds all day at work.  After a morning of mid-period SE-ESE swell and North winds, the warmth of the day has pulled the winds to the SE-ESE, but the winds are pretty light-to-moderate and the swell has enough push that at least the standout spots still hold rideable conditions.

Prediction:  Moderate+ E-ENE winds are in the outlook for Friday, but the good news is that we should see an up-tick/renewal of mid-period ESE background swell.  One of those potential could-be-fun-despite-the-winds days, especially since the water has warmed significantly.  As always, I suggest you monitor local sources of weather for the most up to date wind reports and predictions.

Extended Forecast: Continuation of onshore winds and mid-period background swell for Saturday.  The likely issue will be the more-East angle of the swell and that the winds will likely pick up a bit and be more sideshore NE for Sunday, which could cross conditions up quite a bit.  Check back late work-week or early weekend for the next update.

Wednesday 05/16/12 Report and Prediction

Report:  This morning we have some SE windswell and SW winds in the stomach- to shoulder-high range.  Not perfectly groomed because of the side-off angle of the winds, but plenty clean enough.

Prediction: Winds are predicted to come around more WSW as the morning goes on, but anticipate a potential tilt/shift to the S-SSW late morning/early afternoon as the day heats up and pulls the winds around sideshore.  Low is around 10, so hopefully the low-incoming push and winds cooperate.

Extended Forecast: Some swell is predicted to stick around though Thursday; winds are looking a less-favorable N early and then light onshore in the late morning/early afternoon.  Cloud cover could keep the wind down, so we could still be looking at rideable conditions through the day.  Smaller leftovers may even hang in there into Friday, with variable light-to-moderate onshore winds.

Monday 05/14/12 Report and Prediction

Report:  Small-scale hard-angled remnant S windswell with S-SSW winds.  Not all that impressive but you might be able to find a little peak for a big board hiding on the leeward side of a jetty somewhere.

Prediction:  Low pressure arriving later today/tonight should bring some precipitation and increasing S-SSE winds, which in turn should drive up a new hard-angled S-SSE windswell Tuesday into Wednesday.  Right now it looks like the low will start to push off on Wednesday, bringing winds SW and eventually WSW in the late afternoon/evening.  I will update again tomorrow if/when the timing of the cleanup becomes clear; until then, as always, I suggest you monitor local sources of weather for the most up to date wind reports and predictions.

Extended Forecast:  Some mid-period SE-ESE swell might spin off the back of the low and hold into Thursday, with N-NNW winds currently predicted.  Again, I will address this in my next update as the models resolve some of the instability inherent and typical in forecasts in excess of 48hrs.

Wednesday 05/09/12 Report and Prediction

Report:  A SSE windswell has arrived, but it looks like the winds are unfortunately going to stay tilted to the SSW for most of the day.  Obviously, East-facing sheltered breaks are making the most of it.

Prediction: There is a glimmer of hope for a SW tilt by dark, but it is likely that it will be too little, too late by then.  That (disappointingly) said, it looks like some of the swell should make it through until Thursday, with grooming NW winds predicted.  If any updates to the models and predictions change in a way that I think will affect the outlook, I’ll update this evening.  Otherwise, as always, I highly recommend you monitor sources of local weather information for the most up-to-date wind predictions.

Extended Forecast: Much smaller background leftovers for Friday, but with NW-WNW winds predicted, it will at least make the most of it.