Saturday 10/27/12 Report and Prediction

Report: Some windswell out there today with onshore winds.  Rideable, but most will probably choose to batten down the hatches in preparation for Sandy.

Prediction: Sandy has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm, but don’t let that fool you into thinking we are out of the woods yet.  She will meet and hybridize with a developing noreaster/area of low pressure, barometric pressure is expected to bomb-out, and the hybrid storm is expected to get drawn back towards the mid-Atlantic coast, pushing a big storm surge ahead of her landfall.  The fact that her arrival coincides with a lunar high tide is going to exacerbate the surge.  The exact location of landfall is not clear, but most likely somewhere between DelMarVa and Long Island/Rhode Island.  Areas at and just to the north of the eye will likely see the worst winds and flooding, but this will be a (dimensionally) big storm so areas between Virgina and southern New England will likely be significantly affected.

Don’t be fooled into thinking that just because you made it through Irene relatively unscathed that Sandy will be equally painless; this is a whole different track, approach, setup, dynamic, etc.  Evacuations of low coastal areas are recommended and may very well become mandatory as there is no comparison between the two storms and Sandy may prove to be many times the storm that Irene ever hoped to be.

Extended Forecast:  As the storm moves inland, areas to the south of the center-of-rotation landfall zone will be the first to see offshore winds, followed by areas at and north of it.  Expect strong offshore winds to beat down the swell rather quickly, and be aware of dangerous conditions and debris as flooded-out areas and back-bays empty their contents back into the ocean.  For that reason, surfing post-storm is not advised and you should consider yourself one against nature if you choose to enter the water (which should always be your attitude, but especially in this case).