Sunday 10/14/12 Report and Prediction

Report: Small-scale hard-angled S windswell with SSW winds.  Nothing enticing, but I suppose somewhere might be breaking in the loosely-rideable category.

Prediction:  Continued SSW-SW winds through early Monday may continue to drive a small S windswell with marginally-rideable conditions possible at standout or sheltered breaks.  Winds are predicted to clock around to NW late in the day or early evening with the arrival/passage of a low pressure system.

Extended Forecast: TS Rafael is predicted to develop into a hurricane and make its way up the Eastern seaboard but stay off the coast and well-within our swell window.  Expect SE groundswell to start showing sometime Tuesday into Wednesday, with offshore winds currently predicted through that period.  Anticipate the swell to continue but shift more E, and winds to come around more side-shore, in his wake for the latter half of the work-week.

Looking way ahead: potential for a new round of SE swell developing late-week into early weekend.  Updates to follow…

Wednesday 10/10/12 Report and Prediction

Report:  Some E-ENE windswell, but winds are still onshore at 6AM.

Prediction: Without going into an over-explainy-explanation: the low is dragging/trailing a bit more than modeled/hoped, so the wind predictions are looking a bit questionable now, with the wind-shift potentially holding off until a bit later in the day, and possibly having a healthy SSW tilt to it (there is a lot of conflict among the more reliable models that are usually in accord).  We are just going to have to take a wait-and-see approach and monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date reports and forecasts.

Extended Forecast: Like most windswells, this will likely be a mostly-one-day event, with significantly smaller leftovers for Thursday. Some small mid-period background swell may develop late Thursday and wax-and-wane into early Saturday with a mixed bag of winds for that period (some offshore, some side-shore; check sources of local weather for up-to-date reports and forecasts).  Potential new round of South windswell may develop late weekend into early next work-week; check back for updates).

Tuesday 10/08/12 Report and Prediction

Report:  It’s rainy.  It’s windy.  It’s sloppy.  It’s driving up some windswell, but not something most would consider rideable.

Prediction: This low pressure system should push off Wednesday AM, bringing stiff SW winds in its wake mid-/late-morning, cleaning up the E-ENE windswell.  As a side-thought, maybe this windswell will carve up the dismally-featureless bars that are plaguing much of central NJ beaches.  Fingers crossed!

Extended Forecast: Like most windswells, this will likely be a mostly-one-day event, with significantly smaller leftovers for Thursday.  Not much heading into the weekend past that, but some background swell may develop late Friday into early Saturday, but winds look a bit iffy (sideshore N-NNE?) for that period.  Potential new round of South windswell may develop late weekend into early next work-week; check back for updates.

Gallery Surfboards Honeybadger for Professor Sak

Ridden to local and internet fame by Chris Huch, the Honeybadger by Gallery Surfboards has left it’s mark in its short time thus far. You can check out the official word and some shots of Chris at Gallery Surfboards

Now, I have one for myself.  In case you are wondering why it has the “totally 80’s” theme goin’ on, it is Rick DiJeanne’s airbrush interpretation of my first surfboard (a 6’0″ Hotline).

 

 

Monday 10/01/12 Report and Prediction

Report:  Small-scale background surf in the knee-thigh high range with West winds.  Conditions are swamped out from the (big) high-tide at most breaks, but those select spots that can handle the water are holding a small wave that is decent for a longboard or maybe a fatty fish, and at one of the not-so-secret standouts I checked this AM was holding a consistent stomach-high peak with a few shortboards on it, so it’s out there somewhere if you have the time and determination to go hunting for it.

Prediction:  Set your sights low and you may have fun is the call for today.  That said, the low-incoming tide push this afternoon will be your best bet to maximize what small wave the ocean has to offer.  Winds may tilt a bit more SW this afternoon, but I *think* the moderate temps and partial cloud cover may be able to stave off the dreaded warm-weather-induced windshift to the S-SSE.

Extended Forecast:  Small background groundswell swell looks to wax and wane over the course of the work-week, peaking in the middle, courtesy of Nadine, who is still (remarkably) milling about out there.  We are also predicted to get a round of onshore winds Tuesday-Wednesday; probably not strong enough/with enough fetch to generate a bona fide windswell, but it might introduce enough cross-swell action to break up the long-period lines.  Offshore winds look to return Thursday-Friday for the down-swinging swell.