Sunday 09/09/12 Report and Prediction

Report: Head-high ESE groundswell this morning, somewhat closing out due to the low tide, and slightly side-textured by light N-NNW wind.  Conditions should improve as the tide starts to fill back in (low is approximately 8AM).

Prediction:  I am going to leave the previous prediction (see below) standing with the caveat that the anticipated offshore winds look to be more N-NNW for most of the day.  Luckily they are predicted to be on the lighter side, but more South-facing beaches may hold a cleaner wave.  Winds may come around a bit more offshore towards the evening as things cool down.

Previous (09/07/12) Prediction: Leslie is still off to our South-east and throwing swell our way.  She looks like she is likely going to enter cooler waters, experience some shear, weaken quite a bit, and make a move off to the NNE late weekend/early work-week (keep in mind that there will be a lag between the storm weakening and the local swell weakening as the waves generated by the storm take some time to reach our shores). Hurricane Michael is also well-offshore of us (and well to the east of Leslie) and will most likely accompany her on a trip off to the NNE.  As for local winds affecting our sessions, we are looking at pretty strong sideshore S-SSE winds on Saturday (which may push up their own localized windswell/interference) and NW-WNW winds for Sunday.  As always, I recommend you monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information.

Extended Forecast: While the above may sound like a down-grade for our prospects, consider that, based on the original projections, we were anticipating much longer period E swell for the weekend/early work-week, which typically do not bode well for our region, which is predominantly beachbreak and tends to close out when larger swells approach from the East and exceed 13-14 seconds or so.  We should still receive the East swell, but the weakening of the storm means that wave periods may drop a notch or two and get a little cross-swell from Saturday’s winds, which could peak and open things up a bit.  It looks like we should have some residual swell into the middle of next work-week as well.  Final note: another tropical low is coming off Africa and has potential for development in the Atlantic next week.