Friday 09/07/12 Report and Prediction

Report:  Smaller, but still punchy, ESE groundswell conditions early with offshore winds have given way to onshore-winds and sloppier conditions.

Prediction: Leslie is still off to our South-east and throwing swell our way.  She looks like she is likely going to enter cooler waters, experience some shear, weaken quite a bit, and make a move off to the NNE late weekend/early work-week (keep in mind that there will be a lag between the storm weakening and the local swell weakening as the waves generated by the storm take some time to reach our shores). Hurricane Michael is also well-offshore of us (and well to the east of Leslie) and will most likely accompany her on a trip off to the NNE.  As for local winds affecting our sessions, we are looking at pretty strong sideshore S-SSE winds on Saturday (which may push up their own localized windswell/interference) and NW-WNW winds for Sunday.  As always, I recommend you monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information.

Extended Forecast: While the above may sound like a down-grade for our prospects, consider that, based on the original projections, we were anticipating much longer period E swell for the weekend/early work-week, which typically do not bode well for our region, which is predominantly beachbreak and tends to close out when larger swells approach from the East and exceed 13-14 seconds or so.  We should still receive the East swell, but the weakening of the storm means that wave periods may drop a notch or two and get a little cross-swell from Saturday’s winds, which could peak and open things up a bit.  It looks like we should have some residual swell into the middle of next work-week as well.  Final note: another tropical low is coming off Africa and has potential for development in the Atlantic next week.