Sunday 09/30/12 Report and Prediction

Yesterday’s Anything But Popouts/NJ Surf Show event at Joey Harrison’s Surf Club in Ortley Beach was quite a success.  As a bonus, there was at least a catch-able wave for the surf contest portion of the event; while the waves were not going off, the competitors were.  I am going to try to post a write-up regarding the event, but need some time to compile the info and request some photos from those who photo-documented the day.  Until then, you can see some photos and comments regarding the event by checking out the “NJ Surf Show” and “Gallery Surfboards” pages on Facebook, for starters (I’ll add other names to this as I discover them myself).

Report:  Small-scale background swell and high tides this AM are resulting in swamped conditions, but as the tide begins to ebb mid-morning we should start to see some small but rideable waves peek through for a longboard or fat small-wave board.

Prediction: W-WSW winds are predicted for the day; I think it should stay cool enough to sustain the offshore flow, but with sunny skies and temperatures flirting with the 70’s, one must be concerned that winds could be pulled around from the S-SSE.  If the wind does stay offshore, the incoming could yield a boost to the small-scale surf in the afternoon.

Extended Forecast:  A little bit of a boost in background swell looks likely for Monday, with winds looking to remain offshore, bouncing between WNW and WSW.  In fact, this background swell looks to wax and wane over the course of the work-week, with offshore/side-offshore winds for the majority of it (right now it looks like the only day that will be onshore/sideshore is Tuesday, which could add a windswell component into the mix for Wednesday).  I’ll update on the details of this late Monday or Tuesday.

Wave Prediction for the Weekend and Important Announcement

Report:  No report today; way too busy at work in the field to get eyes-on.

Saturday: Small-scale background bump for Saturday, with W-WNW winds predicted for most, if not all, of the day.  Big tide running, so target the early afternoon low/low-incoming tide for your best bet unless you have a secret spot that handles the smallest of swells and the highest of tides… and bring a small-wave board.  Announcement/Reminder: Don’t forget the Local Summer/Anything but Popouts/NJ Surf Show starts at 8AM on the beach in front of the Surf Club in Ortley Beach.

Sunday: More of the same, with W-WSW winds predicted and perhaps a little more energy in the form of small mid-period background swell peeking through.

Early Work Week: Potential for a new round of sideshore winds and SE windswell setting up for late Monday or early Tuesday.  Check back early work-week for an update.

 

Saturday 09/22/12 Report and Prediction

Report: Some mid-period E swell in the waist- to chest-high range this AM with light S-SSE winds.  It is definitely disorganized but not torn-up by the wind (yet).

Prediction: South winds are predicted to ramp up a bit this afternoon into the evening, but could tilt SSW late in the day.  This will both tear up the current mid-period background swell that is running and drive up a new hard-angled S windswell component.  Winds look to go NW-WNW overnight, so Sunday should offer markedly cleaning mix-swell conditions.

Extended Forecast:  The mid-period background groundswell component is modeled to hold into early work-week, with winds looking offshore for Monday and likely early Tuesday.  As always, I recommend you monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information.

One quick photo from TS Leslie leftovers- the story behind the photo

Friend and surf-photographer Gina Petruzzelli recently shot this pic of me (a.k.a.- Professor Sak).  Not the most action-packed photo, but I get a good laugh out of it every time I look at it.  Here is the (amusing to me, and hopefully to you) back-story:

I got the call that the swell was still hanging around and worth going, so I tied up the loose ends at work and bombed over to the beach.  Of course, the waves were much smaller and weaker than anticipated, so my 6’4″ barrel-board was complete overkill, and to add insult to injury most waves worth surfing were weak lefts, which are not my strong-point.  To put the nail in the coffin, the water temps had dropped a bit, the wind-chill made things cooler than it’s been in months, and in my hurry I left my suit neatly folded in my office.

Since I was wearing jeans (my job affords me the luxury of often wearing board shorts, so I’m usually more prepared than a Boy Scout for warm-weather post-work sessions, but I was doing some dirty-work that day so I opted for the protection of longer pants), all I had was a pair of under-suit Hyperflex compression shorts and the T-shirt I was wearing.  Despite all this, I figured I sacrificed time and productivity at work in order to make the trip so might as well make a go of it.  My friends who I had met had prepared much better than I, armed with 3/2’s and fat small-wave boards, and I admit I both shivered and struggled with my less-than-ideal equipment, but sometimes one wave (I actually caught three I’d call worth surfing during my stint in the water) makes it all worth it, and one photo proves to be the icing on the cake, even if you are wearing sexy-shorts and the ballooning shirt makes you look gut-tastic.

professor sak: big guy, big board, big turn, small waves

Friday 09/14/12 Report and Prediction

Report: Small-scale surf this AM.  Probably knee- to thigh-high.  Light offshore SW winds early have given way to light SSE winds.

Prediction: No significant increase in swell through the day, but a likely increase in SSE winds as the day heats up.

Extended Forecast: TS Nadine is mulling about out there and expected to develop into a cat 1 hurricane early in the weekend, but predicted to move off to the E-ENE.  Still, we should see the gradual development of groundswell mid- or late-day Saturday through Sunday, with some leftovers likely hanging around into early work-week.    Winds might be troublesome, looking to be dominated by N winds Saturday into early Sunday, but might back down later Sunday.  As always, I recommend you monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information.

Looking way ahead, it looks like conditions are setting up for a hard South wind/windswell mid-week.

Sunday 09/09/12 Report and Prediction

Report: Head-high ESE groundswell this morning, somewhat closing out due to the low tide, and slightly side-textured by light N-NNW wind.  Conditions should improve as the tide starts to fill back in (low is approximately 8AM).

Prediction:  I am going to leave the previous prediction (see below) standing with the caveat that the anticipated offshore winds look to be more N-NNW for most of the day.  Luckily they are predicted to be on the lighter side, but more South-facing beaches may hold a cleaner wave.  Winds may come around a bit more offshore towards the evening as things cool down.

Previous (09/07/12) Prediction: Leslie is still off to our South-east and throwing swell our way.  She looks like she is likely going to enter cooler waters, experience some shear, weaken quite a bit, and make a move off to the NNE late weekend/early work-week (keep in mind that there will be a lag between the storm weakening and the local swell weakening as the waves generated by the storm take some time to reach our shores). Hurricane Michael is also well-offshore of us (and well to the east of Leslie) and will most likely accompany her on a trip off to the NNE.  As for local winds affecting our sessions, we are looking at pretty strong sideshore S-SSE winds on Saturday (which may push up their own localized windswell/interference) and NW-WNW winds for Sunday.  As always, I recommend you monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information.

Extended Forecast: While the above may sound like a down-grade for our prospects, consider that, based on the original projections, we were anticipating much longer period E swell for the weekend/early work-week, which typically do not bode well for our region, which is predominantly beachbreak and tends to close out when larger swells approach from the East and exceed 13-14 seconds or so.  We should still receive the East swell, but the weakening of the storm means that wave periods may drop a notch or two and get a little cross-swell from Saturday’s winds, which could peak and open things up a bit.  It looks like we should have some residual swell into the middle of next work-week as well.  Final note: another tropical low is coming off Africa and has potential for development in the Atlantic next week.

 

 

Friday 09/07/12 Report and Prediction

Report:  Smaller, but still punchy, ESE groundswell conditions early with offshore winds have given way to onshore-winds and sloppier conditions.

Prediction: Leslie is still off to our South-east and throwing swell our way.  She looks like she is likely going to enter cooler waters, experience some shear, weaken quite a bit, and make a move off to the NNE late weekend/early work-week (keep in mind that there will be a lag between the storm weakening and the local swell weakening as the waves generated by the storm take some time to reach our shores). Hurricane Michael is also well-offshore of us (and well to the east of Leslie) and will most likely accompany her on a trip off to the NNE.  As for local winds affecting our sessions, we are looking at pretty strong sideshore S-SSE winds on Saturday (which may push up their own localized windswell/interference) and NW-WNW winds for Sunday.  As always, I recommend you monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information.

Extended Forecast: While the above may sound like a down-grade for our prospects, consider that, based on the original projections, we were anticipating much longer period E swell for the weekend/early work-week, which typically do not bode well for our region, which is predominantly beachbreak and tends to close out when larger swells approach from the East and exceed 13-14 seconds or so.  We should still receive the East swell, but the weakening of the storm means that wave periods may drop a notch or two and get a little cross-swell from Saturday’s winds, which could peak and open things up a bit.  It looks like we should have some residual swell into the middle of next work-week as well.  Final note: another tropical low is coming off Africa and has potential for development in the Atlantic next week.

Tuesday 09/04/12 Report and Prediction

Happy Tumbleweed Tuesday!

Report: Some ESE groundswell in the water today, but some sideshore winds from the S-SSE are mucking it up as well.

Prediction: Winds may assume a more favorable (but not optimal) SW-SSW angle for Wednesday, but are also predicted to ramp up quite a bit, which makes me think the East-facing and sheltered breaks will hold the most promise.

Extended Forecast: Look for the groundswell to build for the next few days through the weekend as Leslie strengthens and keeps tracking to the north, more and more into our swell window.  Keep in mind that larger long-period swells are hit-or-miss on  beachbreaks, so plan accordingly.  Winds are looking to be a pretty mixed bag of directions and intensities, so I will leave it up to you to monitor sources of local weather for up to date wind information.