06/30/12 Report and Prediction

Report: TS Debby has been downgraded and her remnants are moving out to sea.  While the predicted models don’t fully support it, my eyes-on check this AM revealed what look like a few early-arriving groundswell lines already showing, mixed in with some leftover mid-period stuff from yesterday, all groomed by light offshore winds.  A little walled-out, so you are probably going to need something with a little foam and cruise to gain early-entry and start moving down the line.  The tide is low and still dropping, so finding a location with some feature to the sand (the flat bars in town are not working at all) will be key if you want to get in sooner than later.

Prediction:  Low incoming (low is approximately 11AM) holds the most promise, but while offshore SW-WSW winds are predicted all day, with temps headed into the high 80’s there is a good chance of a warm-weather-induced South wind-shift late AM/early afternoon.

Extended Forecast:  Small groundswell courtesy of Debby/Debby’s remnants are predicted to wax and wane through the remainder of the weekend, with light and variable (mostly offshore but with varying tilt) winds predicted through the period as well.  Monitor sources of local weather for up to date wind information and key into local reports for current surf conditions.

Looking ahead, I see some groundswell numbers on the models for early work-week, which could be some leftovers from the Debby disturbance/trail and/or some long-period lines from another low pushing off the SE/mid-Atlantic seaboard clearing out the current high pressure ridge associated with the current heat-wave.  Check back for an update late-weekend/early work-week.

Friday 06/29/12 Report and Prediction

Report:  Still in a bit of a holding pattern- trace background swell and offshore winds.  Definitely on the mini-side, but the wave form is good, so if you can find a standout break maximizing the conditions you might be able to find something on low-incoming (low tide is around 10:30).

Prediction: The models are still suggesting we might see some early-arriving swell from TD Debby, now moving out into the Atlantic off the SE coast, this afternoon/evening.  Now, to be clear, I am not calling for tropical-style groundswell, per se (Debby has yet to enter our swell window), but rather some small mid-period swell being thrown off the interaction between the high-pressure ridge moving off the eastern seaboard (and guiding Debby’s path) and low pressure associated with TD Debby’s northern margin.

Extended Forecast: As Debby’s remnants move off into the Atlantic, they should make an appearance in our “swell window” throwing some small groundswell sometime over the weekend (remember there is a lag-time between when the storm moves into the swell window and when it arrives it our area, so derivations in track can result in hours of early/delayed arrival). I will probably post an update early- or mid-weekend.

Wednesday 06/27/12 Report and Prediction

Report:  Well, unfortunately the inclement weather earlier this week did not kick up any swell (was kind of a hail-mary/wishful thinking anyway), leaving great weather with prime offshore winds, but nada swell, in its wake.

Prediction:  While the numbers on the models are showing a little up-tick in background swell, conditions are looking pretty mellow through the next 48 hours or so, which is unfortunate because favorable offshore winds look to dominate the period as well.  Keep your fingers crossed that we see at least longboardable conditions materialize (hey, any improvement over the current unridable conditions would be welcome), but anticipate the worst.

Extended Forecast: While TS Debby has been downgraded to TD status, her current projected path takes her across the state of FL and ejecting somewhere in the NFL/GA region and moving northeastward into the Atlantic.  While not looking like a true “hurricane swell” generator, from the current vantage point it looks like we should see some SE swell build the latter half of Friday into the weekend.  At the moment winds look favorable, with high pressure supplying a mixed bag of offshore/side-offshore winds, bearing in mind that as the days heat up, we could be the unfortunate recipients of localized warm-weather-induced SE windshifts.  More details to follow in a late-work-week update.

Monday 06/25/12 Report and Prediction

Report: Small-scale background waves and variable onshore/sideshore winds.  Nothing all that great this AM, but you might find a small longboardable wave if desperate.

Prediction:  Some violent T-storms are again predicted to develop and roll through mid/late morning.  Winds will likely come around more offshore with, and in the wake of, the storms.  By the time/if the weather starts to clear out today we will probably be looking at high-tide swamp-out conditions until the tide ebbs again later in the day (high is just after noon and low is around 6:30PM), but there is also a good chance of lingering T-storms in its wake so consider that danger if you are hoping to surf.

Extended Forecast:  High pressure and strong offshore winds are predicted to return for Wednesday.  While today’s storm does not look like much of a swell-maker, any time these lows get kicked off the coast by cold fronts approaching from the West, you have the potential for some mid-period swell to be generated off the back of the front, so keep that in mind for tomorrow into Wednesday.

Looking way ahead, TS Debby is remaining relatively stationary down in the Gulf but predicted to start slowly moving Eastward and cross over Florida and eventually eject into the Atlantic.  If so, there is a potential up-tick in swell for late work week/early weekend from some swell spun off her northern margin.  I will be keeping a close eye on her and will update accordingly.

Tuesday 06/19/12 Report and Prediction

Report:  Still some mid-period East swell sticking around. The tide is a bit high (high is at 8AM), but you should be able to find some stomach- to chest-high clean to semi-clean waves at standout high-tide breaks. Winds are predicted/reported to be SW, but it definitely looks and feels to have a more SSW tilt to it this AM.

Prediction:  Winds will likely tilt even more SSW later this morning and then shift S-SSE as the day heats up, as is typical under summer-swell conditions. Also typical are late-afternoon/early evening shifts back to the SW-WSW, so keep your fingers crossed for the late-day session.

Extended Forecast:  This mid-period swell is predicted to stick around into Wednesday, and winds are predicted to come around WSW overnight, so a dawn patrol session may be your best bet before the mid-morning high tide swamps things out again. The swell looks to peter out during the second half of the work-week, but the predominantly offshore wind pattern (bearing in mind the likely phenomenon of offshore winds in the AM followed by warm-weather-induced sideshore S-SSE winds) will most likely maximize whatever small waves stick around.

Check back for an update mid/late work-week.

Friday 06/15/12 Report and Prediction

Report: Plenty of East swell, but plenty of N-NNE wind stepping on it.  SNJ may have clean(er) conditions, but up in CNJ it is pretty side-shore this morning.

Prediction: Winds are predicted to remain onshore, predominantly from the East, through the weekend, but may back down into the single digits, potentially allowing for some windows of semi-clean, albeit lumpy un-groomed, surf.   Monitor sources of local weather and surf info for up-to-date wind information and reports.

Extended Forecast: Relief from the onshore wind pattern is not likely for early work-week as a new round of S-SSE winds are predicted to come into play sometime Monday through Tuesday.   Check back late weekend/early work week for an update.

Monday 06/11/12 Prediction

Report:  sorry, none for today; I was out on a boat for work and never got to lay eyes on the surf.

Prediction:  Increasing onshore winds Tuesday-Wednesday should dive up a new ESE windswell.  Currently, it looks like we are going to be stuck in a onshore/sideshore wind pattern for the work-week and possibly into the weekend.

Extended Forecast: Winds may back down a bit during the latter half of Wednesday, which might yield rideable conditions, depending on your definition and desperation level.  Light onshore winds are predicted for Thursday, but there is also a good chance the bulk of the windswell may fade by then.  Check back mid-week for an update.

 

Wednesday 06/06/12 Report and Prediction

Report:  Light offshore winds this AM and a mid-period E swell.  A big high tide is swamping out many breaks, but standouts are holding a fun wave.

Prediction:  Winds are predicted to come around light offshore by mid-morning and then should ramp up a bit by late morning/early afternoon from the SSE as the day heats up.

Extended Forecast: Some small ESE groundswell (think small but long-period… like 1′ at 12 seconds or so) is predicted to slowly build Thursday into Friday, with offshore winds predicted to dominate the latter half of the week.  Of course, there will always be the likelihood of a warm-weather-induced windshift to the SSE in the late AM or early afternoon as the day heats up.  As always, I recommend you monitor sources of local for up to date information concerning winds and waves.

Looking ahead: The background swell backs down for the weekend, but enough may hold for small-wave surfing.  Potential new round of windswell early next week.  Check back late work-week for an update.

Monday 06/04/12 Report and Prediction

Report:  After a weekend of waves and offshore winds, we still have some leftover groundswell, groomed by offshore winds, this AM.  The issue is the tide; a bit ol’ high tide at 7:45 is swamping out all but a few spots.  Going to have to deal with that issue if you are going to surf this morning.

Prediction: Unfortunately, as the tide drains and the water level becomes more favorable, the winds are predicted to come up from the NE.  The remainder of the day will likely see side-blown conditions.

Extended Forecast:  The NE winds should drive up a new ENE windswell component for Tuesday.  Winds are predicted to be up in the AM but back down a bit in the afternoon, so we may have a window of which to take advantage later tomorrow.  Mixed bag of windswell/underlying groundswell and variable winds for the second half of the week; check back mid-week for an update.